Could AV wipe out the SNP at Westminster?

Go to: Forums > Mind, Spirit & Beliefs: Political

There are 25 postings to this topic on our Member website and this page runs 7 days behind our Member website. For the full topic click to sign up to OUTeverywhere.

A topic from Mind, Spirit & Beliefs: Political

furryfeaturesWed 22/12/10 23:10

I've been wondering how the minor parties with parliamentary representation will fare if the AV referendum goes in favour. Scotland is particularly interesting because of the large number of seats won with considerably less than 50% of the vote.

Looking at the 2010 general election result, I don't think that a single SNP MP was elected with more than 50% of the vote in his/her constituency. In addition, the SNP is fervently in favour of Scottish independence, while the three main national parties are equally unionist. While I'd guess that there are a few pro-independence voters who vote Labour or Liberal Democrat, I doubt if there are any who vote Conservative. My thought is that if there is AV, the other two national parties will rally round the third national party that comes second on the first count to the SNP. (Sorry about the complexity of that sentence.) Thus, I reckon that the SNP will have to get very close to 50% of first preference votes to have a chance of winning any seat that goes to second preferences. Their best chance of getting seats is if they manage to secure the 50% of the vote needed to prevent the count going to second preferences. If they manage 48% in a seat, they'll probably win that seat but might not if the three main parties campaign on a concerted defeat the SNP agenda.

In Wales, I think that Plaid Cymru has a better chance of securing seats because it's really accepted that Wales isn't going to gain independence because (at least in the medium term) the Welsh won't vote for it. This makes them much more acceptable to the three main parties and their supporters. Therefore, they could pick up second preferences from any of the three main parties. Even Conservatives might put PC second, if they see it as a way to defeat Labour. In contrast, in Dundee East, where Labour is the main challenge, I think Tories will give their second preferences to Labour to oust the SNP.

I think that Caroline Lucas might do well out of AV because, much though I dislike the Green Party's policies, she comes across as a very nice person who is genuinely committed to her role as an MP.

There are 24 more postings on this topic on our Member website. For the full topic click to sign up to OUTeverywhere right now.

Enjoy chatting with our members

Click to join and start meeting people today

Imagine joining a social network of people from all around the country and see how you'll feel a year from today. You're increasing your circle of friends. You're doing more of the stuff you enjoy. You're having a great time meeting new people in your area. You're seeing all the benefits of becoming a member of OUTeverywhere. It still feels great making new friends and every day you're hearing more and more about the stuff that everyone's doing. You're joining in. Now, that was easy, wasn't it?

We make meeting people easy. Click to sign up to OUTeverywhere and get up and do something different!

PLEASE NOTE: Events are listed on this website on behalf of organisers in accordance with the Terms of Membership of OUTeverywhere and only if they have chosen broad publicity when adding their event to the Member Events calendar. As such, events are not necessarily affiliated to or endorsed by OUTeverywhere and may not be organised by the person who has listed the event: the person listing this event may simply be attending an event organised by another person or organisation and may wish to meet other people sharing their interest in the event. The mention or appearance of any person or organisation featured on these pages is not to be taken as any indication of sexual, social or political orientation of such persons or organisations. We cannot guarantee that the information is accurate and recommend that you always seek to contact the organiser directly to confirm full details of any event. Under no circumstances will we be responsible for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on, use or misuse of, the information on this website.

Our Vision | Our Team | Privacy Policy | Identity Theft Protection | Terms of Membership

Chat and Meet People

Get access to every profile and loads more pages when you sign up for free to our Member site.

Enter a few key words about what you enjoy, where you live, who you want to meet - search a small sample of OUTeverywhere:

Latest Shout OUT

Broadcast to the gay world with our public Shout OUTs service! Post on our member website or from your mobile phone and raise your profile.

Matt Brazo-Fuerte (matt.armstrong) from Benimassot, Comunitat Valenciana in Spain shouts OUT: "I am eating more strawberries with mint leaves"

Events Calendar

< May 2012 >
S	M	T	W	T	F	S
		1	2	3	4	5
6	7	8	9	10	11	12
13	14	15	16	17	18	19
20	21	22	23	24	25	26
27	28	29	30	31

This Topic's Tags

Members tag topics with key words to help us find similar topics.