Tories surge in polls taken since veto.

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furryfeaturesTue 13/12/11 22:46

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

YouGov shows a two-point Tory lead.

ComRes shows Conservatives and Labour level.

The question about which there is a lot of speculation is whether this is a fundamental shift in the electorate's perception of the Conservatives, David Cameron or both. It is actually a question that is impossible to answer and we'll only know if it proves to be a flash in the pan and the Labour five-point lead resumes shortly.

If the Tories continue to record polling figure around the same level as Labour or better, it won't necessarily be because of the veto. However, it probably will be.

One interesting thing to note is that the UKIP share in the polls has fallen from 7% to 3% (YouGov).

Of course, it is quite reasonable for people to dismiss any opinion poll as meaningless right now because the government has two-thirds of its term still to run. And the Lib Dems will not end the Coalition any time soon because, were they to do so, they would be slaughtered at the election. Their best hope is that things do get better by 2015 and it's not just the Conservatives who reap the benefit.

#99910Tue 13/12/11 22:52

Right now it's pretty much impossible to say what the 'final' outcome of the veto is going to be.

If Europe collapses but the UK is protected because of this then I suspect by the time of the next election there's a good chance the Tories will win again and with a majority.

However, if Europe recovers and the UK is stuck in recession then it'll easily go the other way.

It's still 4 years to the next election - a lot will happen before then.

gromitTue 13/12/11 22:53

It is interesting, suspect polls will revert. It does show though that the campaign is likely to resolve towards the conservatives as they hold all the policy aces. It shows that small things during a campaign have the capacity to shift opinion and in one direction. Underlines Labour and Ed Mili's electability problem.

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