Conservative Party on 13 Point lead in Yougov Poll

deleted:baalhadadSun 16/12/07 00:25

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1087

http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results071214.pdf

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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3056714.ece

From The Sunday Times
December 16, 2007
Gordon Brown's ratings in freefall
Tories surge as women switch allegiance and fear of recession bites
David Smith

Click here to read the YouGov poll results in full

GORDON BROWN'S political reputation was built on his management of the economy. Now, amid fears of recession, a fall in house prices and a rise in unemployment, the prime minister's ratings are plummeting.

Today's YouGov poll of almost 1,500 people for The Sunday Times shows that the Tories are in their strongest position for more than 15 years with a 13-point lead. They are on 45%, compared with 32% for Labour and 14% for the Liberal Democrats. A month ago the figures were 41% for the Tories, 35% for Labour and 13% for the Lib Dems.

Women in particular are deserting Labour. The Tories now enjoy a 20-point lead among female voters, compared with 6 points among men.

The poll also shows an unprecedented drop in Brown's personal ratings. At the height of the Brown 'honeymoon', in August, the prime minister had a net approval rating of 48%, the difference between those saying he was doing a good job and those saying he was doing badly. In October, when he was agonising over whether to call an early election, his approval rating was still a healthy 30%. But it dropped to minus 10% last month and is down to minus 26% this month.

Brown has been hit by a series of setbacks, including the delayed election, Northern Rock, lost computer discs and the 'donor-gate' scandal over party funding. While David Cameron has a positive personal rating of 20%, Brown's is now only just above the lowest point reached by Tony Blair – minus 34% in April 2006, at the height of the cash for honours scandal.

By a margin of 45% to 12%, people think Brown is less competent than Blair was, though by a small margin, 26% to 23%, they think he is more honest and truthful.

On this measure, Brown is doing better than his party. Following the resignation last month of Peter Watt as Labour general secretary over funding irregularities, 77% now think Labour is as sleazy or sleazier than the Tories were. There is, though, no clamour for the return of Blair. Most think it would make little difference and the proportion saying things would be better is balanced by those who say it would be worse.

Gloom about the credit crisis, house prices and the risk of Britain slipping into recession have undermined confidence.

More than half of people, 53%, say they are very or fairly worried about a recession and rising unemployment next year, outnumbering the 43% who say they are not. If the economy does slide, 32% said they would blame Brown for making the economy vulnerable through high debt levels, while others said they would blame the banks or America's mortgage market.

The government is also blamed for wasting money; 90% of people think some or most of the money poured into public services has been wasted.

More than a third of people – 36% – expect house prices to fall next year with 23% expecting a rise. In June, only 8% expected a fall and 61% thought prices would rise.

The gloom is already affecting spending. A third of people said they were spending less this Christmas than last; less than a fifth admitted to spending more.

Research by the accountants Ernst & Young suggests that retailers are responding to the lower preChristmas spending by cutting prices aggressively. The average high street discount, taking into account three-for-two offers and 'Blue Cross' sales, where there is a further discount on a sale price, is 34%, significantly more than last year.

There is scant backing for Brown's battle over police pay. By a margin of 48% to 29% people think the police are doing a good job, and by 27% to 11% that they are underpaid. However, only 25% think the police should have the right to strike while 67% disagree.

In the Lib Dem leadership battle, which will be resolved this week, 61% of Lib Dem supporters polled as 'don't knows'.

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This is a rather interesting You-gov poll, depending on your political affiliations either encouraging or worrying. Of course, with the outcome of the Lib Dem leadership election soon to be announced, everything could be in flux again shortly. I also think Labour's record on the economy has been damaged, even if you believe there was little they could have done to avert the problems which have been perceived over the last few months.