So which is true?

philnThu 17/07/08 20:38

Redaing the papers the last few days i'm struck (even more than ususal) by the sheer divergence of opinion on where society is today, and where it is going.

According to one view (amply supported by evidence):

Society is broken, kids are knifing each other in the street, we are threatened by a rising tide of crime coupled with an ever-encroaching Big Brother State. House prices are crashing, inflation and unemployment are soaring, oil prices will rise inexorably, we are entering the biggest finanicial crisis since the 1930s.

Accroding to another view (also amply supported by evidence):

Violent crime is at a 30 year low, we are more equal and have more rights and freedoms, than ever before. UK employment is at a record high, UK growth is a healthy and sustainable 1.8% (and being revised upwards), the worst of the finicial crisis is behind us (and was greatly exaggereted anyway)

So which is it? The truth, as ever i expect, lies somewhere in between, but which one does it more feel like to you?

and do you feel good or bad about the future?

freestylThu 17/07/08 20:58

They are both true.

Small as the UK is it is still large enough to have pockets that differ tremendously.

Some will never have experienced crime, been unemployed, never seen a chav and everyone around them can trace their ancestors back to the UK several generations.

Others live in hell holes where crime is rampant, just about every other person comes from a different country in this generation, unemployment is high and so on. Many will live somewhere between these two extremes.

Surveys and studies can give which ever result is required.

Many will have noticed their groceries creep up in price in recent months. Whether that bothers them or not depends on how financially stretched they already are.

For the poorest things are going down fast. They are having to make some serious lifestyle changes to adapt to the increased cost compared to their deflating income.

It's about the 'feel good factor'. Figures become pointless in the face of it. If people feel that crime is too high, their money isn't going so far and insecure at work, no figures will make them feel better or change anything.

Fuel (gas and electricity) is up by a high two figure percentage that has in itself eradicated any pay increase. It's very difficult to opt out of those increased. Many cannot think of anything which has stayed the same price.

How do I personally feel?

Very negative in the short term. I believe things will get much worse before they get better. Getting better doesn't mean a return to how they were a year ago either. People are already talking around here of £1.18.9 as 'not being bad' for petrol when compared to £1.25.9. People around here are downgrading crime themselves into those categories they know the police will do something about and those they won't. It's not making the situation better but it's the British way of coping. Maybe we are unique in the world for taking so much negativity and turning it around to pretend we are OK with it. We are known as rip off Britain after all.

Still, government could get lucky. Things could go tits up in China or India and they reduce their demand on oil. The price will then tumble, we shall start seeing domestic prices drop some time later and the feel good factor will be in place ready for the next election. They probably won't be lucky and won't bite the bullet and radically reduce costs forcefully in the UK. Prices will continue to rise, strikes will be more frequent as workers fight to keep up with prices. Fuel blockades could re emerge. The government will lose a general election. The Tories will win and rapidly raise tax whilst they can blame the old government for it. People will feel even worse and then the world slump will end ... the government can lower taxes, people will be worse off than they are now but feel better and so it continues.

philnThu 17/07/08 21:11

quoting > "How do I personally feel?

Very negative in the short term. I believe things will get much worse before they get better"

You paint a gloomy picture freestyl, though quite possibly an accurate one

but i'm an optimist so i keep thinking that things will turn out fine!

of course what happens to the oil price is going to be a key factor. There's no doubt that there will be more upward pressure on the oil price over the next few years, but i stil feel that the current price is due to an "oil bubble" and that sooner or later it will burst and thr price will come down, not way down but at least to a more sensible level. but the trouble with bubbles is, you have no idea when they are going to burst - until it is too late....