Imagine an alternative history without WWI...

furryfeaturesFri 08/04/11 21:16

Imagine that somehow the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand had either been prevented or, following the assassination, rapid diplomatic activity had averted war. I think that the second option is unlikely to have happened because I think that certain protagonists wanted war. However, if the assassin had somehow been prevented from firing the fatal shot, the excuse for war would have been lost. It could be argued that another excuse for war would have occurred sooner or later but perhaps diplomats would have seen the problem with Europe's network of mutual defence treaties and might have been able to undo the diplomatic time bomb. Let's imagine that happened and there was no WWI at all.

What do you think would have happened next? All sorts of things happened because of WWI, including WWII, in my opinion. Things could have been so different.

In the UK, the first thing that would have happened is that the Government of Ireland Act, 1914 would have come into force. This would have made the 1916 Easter Rising very hard to carry out. Without a major war in Europe and with Home Rule, my guess is that the security forces would have been much more on top of the situation in Ireland and that a percentage of the Irish population would have been satisfied or willing to try the new governmental arrangement. So my guess is that there might have been some terrorist activity but there wouldn't have been any general civil war in Ireland.

In Europe, the German Empire would have continued and so would the Russian Empire as the lack of a war would have allowed the countries' economies to prosper and develop. I don't think that the Austro-Hungarian Empire would have disintegrated. The Czechs and Slovaks had reasonable autonomy and Hungary was a partner in the Empire. Whether the Croats and Slovenes would have sought independence, I don't know.

Nothing would have convinced the Americans to get involved on the world stage and the US would have remained isolationist. One result of this is that the concept of nations' self-determination would not have gained favour. There would have been very little pressure on colonial powers to give colonies independence.

The Wall Street Crash probably wouldn't have happened on the scale that it did. There probably would have been a lesser crash and a recession but nothing on the scale of the Depression.

Hitler would not have had the raison d'etre for his political views and he would have never have been anything more than a lunatic fringe candidate. Likewise, it would have been harder for Mussolini to gain power, though I think that he'd have been more successful than Hitler. One piece of European history that might not have been changed by the lack of WWI is the Spanish Civil War, though without fascist support for the falangists, it might have lasted longer and have been even bloodier.

What would have happened in Japan is difficult to say. It's quite possible that the Japanese would still have invaded China in 1931 but it's possible that in this alternative history they'd still be there now.

Without a Russian Revolution, Mao Tse Dung probably wouldn't have overthrown the Nationalists and neither group would have got the Japanese out of China. China, most likely, would be an awful mess and would have been for the past eighty years.

India would probably have achieved internal self-government but not full independence. Without external pressures on Britain and the communalist troubles between Hindus and Muslims, full independence would have been avoided. In Africa, Britain and France would still dominate and Germany would still have its territories. However, dissent within the various African colonies would probably be showing by now.

Over the past 97 years, technology would have developed quite differently to the way it's developed in this history. Some things, such as TV and telecommunications might have developed similarly. However, nuclear power might not have been developed until the 1960s. Weaponry might well be less advanced as a lack of major wars would have meant that there was little pressure to innovate. Who can tell what might have happened in space technology? Perhaps the space race would have been between Britain and France or not happened at all. I think that medicine would have continued to advance at the rate it has done in this history and I'd reckon that we'd have the NHS, though perhaps not in exactly the same form.

The most important area that I've left out of this is the Middle East. I have no idea how it might have developed. In this reality, most Turkish possessions were divided up between Britain and France as League of Nations mandates but in the alternative reality, no WWI would have meant that the Ottoman Empire may have persisted a bit longer. My guess is that the empire probably would have continued to disintegrate and that Kemal Ataturk's rise to power may have been delayed by a few years. The League of Nations would not have existed and I'd guess that Turkey's Arab possessions would have sought independence and choice areas picked off by colonial powers.

In essence, if WWI had not occurred, I'd guess that the last 100 years would have been great to be a European, with the exception of being Spanish. Science, culture and society would have developed differently.

What's your speculation about what might have happened with no WWI?