Selling Mongolia to China

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A topic from Local Interest: Asia

laresWed 25/01/12 20:14

"Mine, all mine - Mongolia the country that is likely to grow faster than any other in the next decade, and how it is changing, for better or worse"

"'GOIN' to OT?' drawls Andy, a burly tattooed man with that worldly air common to those who have done time in the American army. The gate at Incheon airport in South Korea is packed with travellers, mainly Mongolian expatriates on their way home, waiting to board a flight to Ulaanbaatar. Andy's is a fair guess as to the destination of one of the few other Western passengers. 'OT'—Oyu Tolgoi, or 'Turquoise Hill'—is in the middle of nowhere, a desolate spot in the Gobi desert, another hour-and-a-half's flight south of Ulaanbaatar (inevitably, 'UB'). But it is the site of the biggest foreign-investment project in Mongolia, a copper-and-gold mine that is springing up at a remarkable speed and is expected, by 2020, to account for one-third of Mongolia's GDP."

"Mongolia is being dug up and sold to China. Already, more than 80% of its exports are minerals, a proportion expected to rise in a few years to 95%. Mongolia makes mining geologists salivate over its known riches and unexplored potential—for copper, coal, gold, silver, uranium, molybdenum, and on and on. Some 3,000 mining licences have been issued.

It is not just that Mongolia is a treasure-chest of geological wealth. It is slap-bang next to the world's biggest and fastest-growing market for most minerals. Put together Mongolian supply and Chinese demand, and Mongolia will be rich beyond the wildest dreams of a population many of whom, a generation ago, saw themselves as nomadic herders. With just under 3m people, Mongolia has a chance of becoming a Qatar or a Brunei: a country that has only a small population but almost all of it, in global terms, loaded. Brian Fisher, an Australian economist who has conducted a study of the economic impact of OT, says Mongolia 'sounds like Australia in 1930'.

In the third quarter of 2011 Mongolia's economy grew by 21% compared with the same period in 2010. Even sober economists think the country is going to have to get used to this sort of thing. The IMF expects growth to average 14% a year between 2012 and 2016. In 2013, the year production is due to begin in earnest at OT, it is forecast to reach 22.9%. Others think it will be at least twice that."

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